Housing Scam Didn't Start Recession. The Promise of Change Did.
Posted by: John Coonen on Feb 24, 2009
Let's suspend reality for a moment, take ourselves out of the political mêlée and economic stress. Let's gently place ourselves into the future. Imagine the year is 2020, and we're looking back at this economic debacle to figure out what caused it. Let's look at it with perfect "2020 hindsight," as it were.
What do we see as the real catalyst for the economic crash of 2008-2009? While foolish and corrupt policy making on the part of legislators (including Obama himself, as Senator) surely contributed to the collapse in 2008, in 2020 I think we'll look back and realize the housing crisis revealed itself when the real culprit entered the arena.
Enter stage left: "Change."
We humans may talk up "change" as if we love it, but in reality, we don't much like fundamental change. A little tweaking here and there is OK, but fundamental change? No. Investors like change even less.
While politicians in America have stumped on the promise of "change" since our inception, the Presidential campaign of 2007-08 was different. We were all conditioned to realize that there wouldn't really be fundamental change. However, this campaign was different; this guy may had a hidden past (no birth certificate, voting "present" on key issues, etc). Somehow, we knew Obama surely intended to change America's DNA, swinging our politics far to the left, possibly beyond the radical left of Reid and Pelosi.
The war and lack of credibility of our then President (Bush) and abysmal approval ratings for Congress set the stage for change. Oil prices were skyrocketing and anxiety was on high alert. Young new voters who craved change knew it was coming, and major fund managers knew that this brand of "change" wasn't a just a slogan this time.
While investors may crave volatility in the market, they bristle at the uncertainty which fundamental change brings, and Obama was promising fundamental change.
Uncertainty causes we humans to either fight or take flight. We either meet change head-on, or we pull back, put on the armor, and weather it out. Republican challengers who fought the promise of far-left change head-on were quickly dispensed of by a charismatic and cool, well-organized half-billion dollar campaign juggernaut.
If we look back at trends in 2008 by the big fish investors, check: 1) When money started leaving conventional blue chip stocks; and 2) Where the money went.
Here are the answers: 1) Money started leaving Wall Street when the anti-business-far-left Barack Obama defeated the predictable-centrist Hillary Clinton; and 2) The money went two places: The safe harbor of Treasury Bills; and the get-it-while-you-can-on-the-way-out-the-door futures market for Big Oil market.
Remember $4.50/gallon gasoline? That was pre-election; but post-DNC Primary.
Investors knew that when Hillary Clinton lost, and a far-left charismatic won, the days of steady Wall Street profiteering were numbered. As the Obama train blamed big business for nearly all of America's woes at every whistlestop on the campaign, more and more money flowed into T-Bills and Oil. The rest of the market began to suffer.
Can you imagine Bernie Madoff's stress level, as he came to realize his $50 billion Ponzi scheme - a decade-old investment scam that requires constant market growth to survive - would soon crumble? His "A-list who's who" client list, including Steven Spielburg and others would soon be placing Bernie Madoff on their most-wanted list. The fundamental change caused investments to sour; the souring caused a collapse in Bernie's too-good-to-be-true Ponzi scheme.
This mild "change" in investor trepidation exposed Bernie's scam. In short order, the co-pilots of another ponzi-esque scheme - this one of of epic proportions - would soon be found out.
Barney Franks, Tom Cox and Chris Dodd surely realized the high-risk scam built on the hopes and dreams of would-be American home owners would soon collapse. As investment dollars evacuated the premises in search of a better return on investment than the high-risk housing bubble. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would soon disintegrate in front of their eyes. Not only would the American homeowners' dreams go up in smoke, but so would a the free flow of steady campaign funds for politicians willing to overlook the corruption and allow the ponzi-esque scheme to continue.
Investors took flight, and we citizens were left with an utter void of confidence in our system. The crash we're experiencing now was not caused by a housing scheme. It was caused by a duplicitous campaign which with one hand promised change and blamed big business for all our evils, while with the other was part and parcel engaged in the illegitimate and unAmerican "policymaking" that undermined the very foundation of our own financial stability.
It's surely sinister to think that the promise of change which started in 2008 had such intended consequences, or that the housing collapse was the lever needed for the Left to cause change itself. That's a stretch, but it is surely naive to believe that the housing collapse caused the downfall. After all, the same legislators who fostered and promoted that corrupt infrastructure are not only still there; they've been elevated to positions of greater power.


